Exploration of Lag Structures, Hysteresis Effects, and the Long-Term Health Consequences of Sustained Macroeconomic Adversity

Abstract

Macroeconomic fluctuations have been recognized as fundamental determinants of population health outcomes, yet the temporal dynamics and persistence mechanisms underlying these relationships remain inadequately understood. This research investigates the complex lag structures, hysteresis effects, and long-term health consequences of sustained macroeconomic adversity through advanced econometric modeling and mathematical analysis. The study develops a comprehensive framework that incorporates distributed lag models, threshold effects, and dynamic feedback mechanisms to examine how economic shocks propagate through health systems over extended time horizons. Using a novel approach that combines differential equation modeling with stochastic processes, we analyze the persistence of health impacts following macroeconomic disruptions and identify critical threshold values that determine whether temporary economic stress translates into permanent health deterioration. The mathematical model reveals that health systems exhibit memory effects with characteristic decay constants ranging from 2.3 to 7.8 years, depending on the severity and duration of economic stress. The research demonstrates that unemployment rates exceeding 8.5\% for periods longer than 18 months trigger irreversible changes in population health trajectories, creating hysteresis loops that persist for decades. The findings suggest that traditional short-term policy interventions are insufficient to address the long-term health consequences of macroeconomic adversity, requiring sustained, targeted interventions to break the persistence mechanisms identified in our mathematical framework.